Episode 293: 12-04-14
What to Do if You Get a DUI this Holiday Season
Jonathan Blecher is a criminal defense and DUI attorney, based in Miami, Florida. Every year at this time we ask him to discuss the issues related to DUI.
He has defended over 3,000 DUI and suspended license cases since 1982 as well as thousands of criminal cases. He served as an Assistant State Attorney for Janet Reno and served on the Florida Bar committee which writes DUI and traffic court rules, and 30 years of Criminal Law experience. Blecher is a frequent lecturer, delivering seminars to attorneys about DUI and criminal procedure as well as speaking to a wide range of civic and business groups in South Florida.
Recognized by Cambridge Who’s Who in Law, Florida Trend Magazine’s Legal Elite, and as one of the Top 100 criminal trial lawyers in Florida, Blecher is a member of the National College for DUI Defense, has an AV Rating by Martindale-Hubbell and a Superb rating by AVVO.
We discuss what to do if you get pulled over.
What a CCIM Can Do for a Lawyer
Louis P. Archambault is a partner and Florida Bar Board Certified Expert in Real Estate Law at the Miami law firm of Pathman Lewis, LLP, where he practices in the areas of real estate, business and corporate law. Mr. Archambault has earned the highest rating (“AV”) from the prestigious Martindale-Hubbell Law Directory and Bar Registry of Preeminent Lawyers.
He received his Bachelor of Arts from the University of Wisconsin, graduating with distinction in 1995. He attended the University of Miami School of Law where he received his J.D. degree cum laude in 1998, and was a member of the Business Law Review. Mr. Archambault was admitted to practice in Florida in 1998.
We discuss how being a CCIM member has helped Archambault build his business.
Economic Forecast for 2015
Dr. David R. Williams, President of Florida Economics Consulting Group, Inc., focuses on economic consulting related to forensic/litigation and to economic impact analyses. He worked for five years in Tallahassee as the Acting Chief Economist in the Governor’s Office in the Graham and Martinez administrations in charge of forecasting Florida’s population, macroeconomics and sales tax revenues.
He has been on the FLORIDA TREND magazine Board of Economists and has taught in the Executive MBA program at the University of Miami. His economics training: Bachelors University of Wales, Masters University of North Carolina, Doctorate University of Florida.
We discuss the outlook for the U.S. economy in 2015.
It’s Open Enrollment for the “ObamaCare” – Now What?
James “Eric” Ross, a seasoned licensed health insurance agent from SW Florida, discusses the five keys to choosing the RIGHT health plan for you, your family and your employees”.
“Open enrollment” is here and as citizens of the United States we are all required to purchase health insurance before 2-15-14 or be subject to a TAX.
We have rights AND options when it comes to choosing health insurance today. If you thought that the marketplace was the only avenue to get health coverage.
We discuss three options and how they work, so you can make an informed decision.
Episode 293: 12-04-14 (To download, right-click and select “Save Link As”.)
Feature photo courtesy of Scott Davidson on Flickr.com.
James Fried: All right, Wanda has given me the pointer and it’s time to rock and roll for our December kick-off show. As usual, this December we’re going to kick-off with what do you do if you get a DUI this holiday season with our old friend Jonathan Blecher.
We’re going to talk about what does CCIM can do if you’re a lawyer. We’re going to have our 2015 economic forecast and we’re going to wind up the show with, it’s open enrollment for ObamaCare. Now what? The market kind of plate basically states the same so we’re going to throw right over to Wanda. We’re going to come right back after this short break. Wanda take it away, we got a great show today.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
James: Well you know it’s our UHealth segment and I just want to say this about UHealth. UHealth has been a big part of our lives here on Fried on Business. As most of the people that have been following the show know my wife has been suffering from a very serious medical problem.
And the folks at UHealth, well they’re helping us out. So if you need more, go to UHealth. UHealth where you get the personal touch. All the doctors collaborate together. UHealth, the home of collaborative medicine. Go to uhealth.org for more info.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
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James: My we are back. Wanda, how are we doing out there? Got your fingers in the right place now?
Wanda: I think so. I think so.
James: All right. We’re going …
Wanda: I had too much music piled in there.
James: You know it’s always good to have a little music but not necessarily too much. It is holiday season we’re going to have to get some of that jingles bells.
Wanda: On with the show.
James: So we’re going to talk about what you do if you get pulled-over for DUI this season. We’ve got Jonathan Blecher, he’s a criminal defense and DUI attorney based in Miami. Every year at this time we ask him to discuss the issues related to DUI. He’s defended over 3,000 DUI cases in suspended license cases since ’82.
He served as an assistant state attorney for Janet Reno. Served the Florida Bar Committee which writes the DUI and traffic court rules and he is 30 years as a criminal lawyer. John welcome to the show.
Jonathan: Thank you Jim. Pleasure to be here. I want to first of all give a shout out to some of the girls in the office who helped me during this holiday season and all through the year. I’ll say hello to Wendy, Evelyn, Maureen and “Art Basel” Natalie.
James: Bazzle, dazzle, dazzle me with bazzle. I bet the folks out there are just loving the traffic over by the 112 right now. So John now let’s see, it’s the holiday season. We just went to the holiday party, we don’t think we drank too much, we get in the car and the lights go off behind us.
Jonathan: Well you’re going to become a statistic. And let me just give you a quick stats Jim. Last year in Florida there were 61,000 DUI arrests. In the United States, overall 1.2 million people were arrested for driving under the influenced.
And the rate of DUI is highest among 21 to 25 year olds, 25 percent of the arrest in the United States were in that age group. My personal demographic and my practice is 18 to 35 years old.
James: Now you know a lot of people think that well this couldn’t happen to me. I’m too smart for this. I take all the precautions in the world. I think that person’s driving down that pretty dangerous road.
Jonathan: Well you know there’s a stepped up enforcement at this time of the year. There’s roving patrols that are going on, there’s saturation points, there’s DUI checkpoints, sobriety checkpoints and police officers are out there you know.
In fact in Miami-Dade County and the city of Miami, they have DUI taskforces who are specifically tasked with the job to go out and hunt for DUIs. And it’s not that tough to find a DUI, it’s almost like fishing in a barrel.
You know if you’d go out to South Beach any night after midnight, chances are pretty good that someone behind the wheel has too much to drink.
James: Might think that most of us driving on I-95 can pretty much pick up the guy who’s had a little bit too much to drink in about 445 heading north on I-95.
Jonathan: And now Jim, just because I’m a DUI defense lawyer, criminal defense lawyer that doesn’t mean that I advocate driver under the influence.
James: Well I would imagine that you advocate not driving under the influenced which is why you probably tell everybody that your client what the taxi numbers are.
Jonathan: I mean look. I’m out in the street like you are and I see people that are driving radically all day long. I not out as late any more as I used to be.
James: What are you the little old man now?
Jonathan: I’m not little and I’m certainly not that old. But I certainly don’t go out that late anymore. But it’s really easy to spot these people. So you know you would ask me what do you do if you get stopped for DUI?
And really the key thing is that is a suspicion of DUI. It’s not that you’re being charged with a criminal offense or that you’re already in court. This office has an inkling that you were driving under the influence of alcohol or a controlled substance.
James: The old, the old what do they call it? Probable cause or reasonable suspicion to stop you probable cause to place you under arrest. And really, it’s just an officer’s suspicion that you’re driving under the influence. So it’s important that you understand that at that point there’s about a 90 percent chance that you’re going to be arrested for DUI.
If you have the odor of alcohol in your breath and the officers has seen some erratic driving of any kind, there’s a very, very good chance that you’re going to be taken out of that car. Asked to get physical sobriety test, eventually arrested, asked to submit to a breath test at the police station and end up in jail.
James: Wow. It sounds like a pretty invasive process for somebody who is just heading home from the bar.
Jonathan: And that’s part of the problem. It’s easy to spot the people that are really impaired. It’s what officer’s pull over people had just a moderate amount of alcohol, those are the people that fall into the net of overzealous police enforcement.
James: Wait, I live in America. They don’t have overzealous police enforcement in America. Just ask the people in Ferguson. Sorry I just had to get that out you threw that red meat right at me…
Jonathan: I certainly did. And you cut it up and spit it out.
Jonathan: So anyway let me just tell you. If you get pulled over and you’ve had something to drink, basically you don’t want to give the police officer any more evidence than he already has. You want be respectful, you want to say as little as possible, you don’t have to take physical sobriety test.
Officers says, “Have you’ve been drinking tonight?” You don’t have to answer that question. You can refuse to take the physical sobriety test, there’s no penalty if you’ll refuse. But practically speaking, if he’s pulled you over and he smells alcohol he’s going to arrest you one way or another.
And then his arrest affidavit is going to be creatively written to indicate signs of impairment.
James: I had those guys in my creative writing class in college. So John now …
Jonathan: You went to college?
James: Just a short time, just a short time. And I actually got a sheepskin but not a degree. So now the real thing is, so you’ve them, they got you in the car, they took you back to the station, you’ve been in overnight. Somebody came in and they bailed you out what’s the next step?
Jonathan: Well hopefully they’ll going to call me. But in the state of Florida, when you take a breath test and blow over the legal limit or you refuse to submit to a breath test. The department of Highway Safety Motor Vehicle is going to suspend your license.
So you’ve got 10 days from the date of arrest to take some action about your driver’s license. Either you appeal the suspension or waive you right to appeal the suspension, immediately get a hardship license but you need to consult with a criminal defense attorney right away. And certainly within the first 10 days.
James: Well you have to protect your assets basically, the things that you do to get back and forth from work.
Jonathan: And that’s part of the problem, one of the problems in Miami-Dade County. We don’t have adequate public transportation set up for people that live out let’s say in West Kendall. This town is so spread out that you need to have your car.
James: Yeah. There’s no doubt about it. Now John so you don’t just do DUI, you also do other types of traffic offenses. I live in Miami-Dade I see people committing traffic offenses every quarter mile. How do people deal with the repeat issues that come up with, let’s just say repetitive bad driving?
Jonathan: Are you talking about if someone keeps getting arrested for repetitive bad driving?
James: I think I’m just somebody who’s just a bad driver who just keeps running afoul of everything. What is somebody a habitual offender to do? Not habitually offend I guess.
Jonathan: Yeah. Well habitual traffic offenders are usually people that have three or more driving with suspended licenses.
Jonathan: Or a series of major convictions like, for multiple reckless drivings, leaving the scene of an accident, fleeing a police officer, things like that.
James: I certainly don’t want to run into one those people.
Jonathan: And the laws are getting tougher and tougher on these types of things. Leaving the scene of an accident with bodily injury now carries with it mandatory license revocation, mandatory jail sentences on fleeing police officer. So things are getting tougher and tougher in the traffic realm.
James: Now what’s going on about monitoring? You know you read about these boxes they’re going to put in your cars. There’s these things that you’re going to blow into if you have a suspended license to take you photo. What are some of the technological advancements that are coming to deal with this issue?
Jonathan: Well the first thing I want to talk about is that the police are looking at laser beams Jim, yes laser beams like Star Wars laser beams.
James: To stick in my face?
Jonathan: No. Well practically to stick in your face. They’re going to set up a laser beam or some sort of a ray near cars that are moving on the highway. They will shoot the laser beam through the car and should be able to detect whether or not there’s alcohol vapor. Yes I said vapor inside the car. Giving them reasonable suspicion to stop you. But you wanted to talk about the other technological things.
James: Wait. That’s Star Wars.
Jonathan: You want to get to vapors for a minute?
James: No. I don’t want to talk about vapor on this show. But I do want to talk about the other technology advancements that are recurring.
Jonathan: Well that’s absolutely true. And you know mothers against drunk driver usually pushing for mandatory ignition interlock devices for every single DUI had accomplish that in 21 states in the United States after …
James: How about Florida?
Jonathan: Florida, not yet completely for DUIs. But if you’ve got a breath test result over a 0.15, you have minors in the car, multiple DUI offenders you will be required to have an ignition interlock devices placed on your car.
Let me tell you how this things work. Ignition interlock devices are hooked up to the electrical systems of your car. You’re required to blow in the ignition interlock device and not have over 0.02. And the technology that comes into place here, the added technology is now they have little mini cameras attached to the device.
So they can verify that you were the person that actually blew into the instrument. Mothers against drunk driver’s Holy Grail is that every car in the United States will have one of this equipped. Every car.
James: That just absolutely blows my mind. No pun intended.
Jonathan: It’s getting that way. There are strong political influence in the country.
James: So John, I guess kind of wrapping of if somebody has a DUI suspension arrest and they’re trying to protect their rights. How do they reach you?
Jonathan: Well I can be reached in several different places. My website is duilawdefense.com, duilawdefense.com
James: Can you spell that?
Jonathan: No. I wanted to be a doctor but I couldn’t pass the math. So I decided to go to law school duilawdefense.com, my cell phone number is 305-321-3237 we can be found on twitter @duilawdefence.com.
James: You’re the man John Blecher keeping us safe, keep yourself safe on the highways this holiday. Don’t drink and drive. We’ll be back after this message, we’re going to talk about how is CCIM can help you out making money. Back after this.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
James: All right everybody this is it. It’s the homestretch, it’s December and the Dolphins are in town playing the Ravens this Sunday at 1 o’clock. It will be just like a playoff game, I’m going to be there with my buddies, why don’t you join us. Get your Miami Dolphins tickets, we’re all stronger together Dolfans. There’s a limited number of tickets for this game. Get yours at dolphins.com, it’s where Dolfans go to get their Dolphin tickets at the best possible price. Dolphins.com, join me at the game. We’ll all be stronger together. Be part of the Dolphins home field advantage, this Sunday.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
James: Now we’re back we’ve got our monthly CCIM segment. This time we’re going to talk about what CCIM can do for us lawyer. We have Louis P. Archambault he’s a partner and the Florida Board Certified Expert in Real Estate Law at the Miami law firm of Pathman-Lewis. Hey welcome to the show Louis.
Louis: All right. Thank you very much Jim.
James: Hey now how many lawyers were at the CCIM before you came on board?
Louis: Thankfully there weren’t any on the board until I joined. I was at networking meeting, got the chance to meet some of the board members that were at the back of the room. And I have known them through transactions as being some of the better brokers in the city.
And when I asked them what the group was and they explained it I said this is definitely a group that I want to be a part of. So I asked to be an affiliate member as an attorney and thankfully they let me participate to help out the board.
James: That’s great. So being a member of CCIM here in South Florida helped you grow your practice?
Louis: Well absolutely. Even if it’s not a directly referrals from transactions because for my practice I do representation for people who are leasing, title work, buying and selling properties joint-ventures development, I mean there’s really nothing that we don’t do.
And this group being on the commercial side, if it’s not direct referrals for transactions at a bare minimum — brokers are great networkers, I mean obviously you know they’re terrific when it comes to group, working a group.
If there’s somebody that doesn’t have an attorney, I can guarantee that people on the board will help me find them to be able to represent them.
James: That’s great. Now you know a lot of people join the CCIM, they take the CCIM classes, they get they get the CCIM, did you do that?
Louis: I didn’t I’m an affiliate member.
Louis: So I don’t carry the designation, I haven’t done the classes. At some point if I’m wasn’t doing representation through a law firm I may go for the designation. It would be an honor to try but for me, I’m just an affiliate in the board.
Helping out in the legal questions that come along the way if I can get seminars on topics, anything to help out the brokers that they can be better at what they do.
James: What don’t you talk to us a little bit about a recent transaction that you do with one of the CCIMs.
Louis: Okay. We did an industrial purchase for one of the clients of one of the board members where it was an old warehouse in Medley and through the transaction, we had the chance to represent the buyer to buy the warehouse and he also used one of the lender affiliates for the group, Total Bank to be able to fund his SBA loan on his purchase.
And so all together we got the chance to really help out this person. It’s a local business, they make pallets actually. So a really, really nice guy and it was great to be able to help him out and work through the group in the transaction.
James: I saw you went to the University of Wisconsin which is famous for the strength of their real estate programs. You ever like won any real estate folks there while you were an undergraduate?
Louis: Unfortunately I moved down to Miami for law school so didn’t get the chance to get to meet too many people in the business community. But yeah I know that I do miss it up there sometimes. It’s actually a funny story how I got down to Miami is I was in Tampa for the Hall of Fame bowl at the time.
It wasn’t the Outback ball and Wisconsin was beating up on Duke thankfully since last night it didn’t happen for the basketball team, at the time it did. And I was seating on a beach in Tampa, I’m wearing an air blanket, it’s 80 degrees, it’s beautiful. I get on the plane in the afternoon and by the time I landed in Madison it was 30 degrees below zero.
So I went through a 110 degree in temperature within hours. So I can picture the sun and this warm blanket of Tampa and I was saying to myself, “Why am I here, I can’t handle this anymore.” The day after I got my acceptance letter for Miami for law school and I said to my family “I’m sorry, I’m going to the big city, the bright lights and the palm trees.”
James: High five to you man. High five to you. You’re getting the thumbs up from every person here who I think that’s a pretty similar story to lot of the folks here that I know. Now you’re with Pathman and Lewis, what are you doing over at Pathman and Lewis?
Louis: Great firm to work with, they were a boutique firm.
James: Other than that guy Richard Schermer.
Louis: Yeah. Richard’s a great guy. I was mentioning we go skiing together. He’s a great skier.
James: He’s terrific guy.
Louis: So if you see him on the hill, you need to make sure you get out of his way. But great firm for us it’s a great fit for businesses in Miami because Miami, unlike a lot of other big city, tends to be very much middle businesses. Not necessarily franchises or Fortune 500 companies that only hire multiple hundred attorney firms so we had a chance to work with great clients in Miami.
Locally and I helped them out not just for real estate, we have litigation and land use and we do a lot of banking work too. So for Miami and what you typically see in business down here, it’s a great fit.
James: So what do see in some of the trends in real estate that you could share with some of our CCIM listeners?
Louis: Well we’re definitely on the upswing, there’s no question about that. But it’s a cautious upswing because you’re almost talking about two different Miamis. There’s the Miami that’s marketed to Latin-America which is come and buy a pre-construction condominium in the sun and have your cash in the United Stated where it’s a little safer than if you were coming from Latin-America.
James: Oh what a well-positioned comment, very crafted.
Louis: And then there’s the other part of Miami which is the people that live here, people the work here do business and for us, I think there’s optimism because there’s a lot of money and business. But on the other side, all of us remember very clearly what it was like a couple of years ago on the downswing.
James: Well you know one of the things that one of the statistics that I heard that was kind of an eye-opener was in the last cycle there were about 14 billion dollars’ worth of condos that were on the pipeline. Now there’s only like 7 or 11 billion so hopefully it’s not a real overhang. And it’s a lot of its concentrated, a lot of it a certain type, a lot of it’s got pre-sale.
I’ll be interested to see who ends up living in some of those condos but every one of them has got a buyer and the buyers keep coming. And my gosh just imagine all the business it’s going to be on when they dazzle on the bazzle here.
Louis: That’s right.
James: So we’ve only got, Wanda how much more time do I have? I’ve got two minutes. Two minutes, dos minutos. So you know what’s the good thing that you can leave with us Louis about take away from your experience at CCIM?
Louis: Sure again it’s a great group of brokers, it’s a great organization. I should mention just brokers are appraisers, financiers and other people also that carry the designation. And I do want to plug the Outlook Conference its upcoming Wednesday January 21st. Starting with registration at 7:30 is we’re going to have our Annual Outlook Conference.
We’re going to cover the major sectors of the real estate and have an outlook on what everyone can expect for 2015. It’s going to be another great conference we’re expecting 300 to 350 people at the Coral Gables Country Club. And to register it’s a little bit long so bear with me, it’s ccimmiamioutlookconference.com to register.
James: I bet they could Google it and find it too.
Louis: They could do that too.
James: So Louis I’m looking forward to seeing you then. We’ll be broadcasting live, it’s a first time we’re going to be mentioning that broadcasting live from the Trends and Strategies Conference so make sure you leave that documents so we can talk about it some more on the next show.
We’ll be right back after this short break. We’re going to do a little traffic and around the horn we’re going to come up with David R. Williams, President of Florida Economics. We’re going to talk about what’s going to happen next year. He’s great at predicting the future, sort of. Back after this.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
James: Hey everybody when you’re looking or buy or lease a car you want to get every advantage that you can and that’s you have to check out our friends, your friends at Warren Henry Land Rover, Range Rover, Infinity and Jaguar they’re all exceptional cars and they all come with the Warren Henry advantage. That means complimentary dent repair, key replacement, fur service and a personal assistant that you can call for anything anytime for four years. Always the best price, always the best service, always Warren Henry.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
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What sets UHealth apart is the comprehensive approach they bring to healthcare. You might have several doctors for couple of different health issues but do they ever talk to each other and cross-reference your symptoms and medications to make sure your care is second to none? Well hey, at UHealth, they do.
More than collaborative care, UHealth is powered by the University of Miami Miller’s School of Medicine. Where their research and clinical trials bring state-of-art treatment to our community.
Seriously these are some of the best rated hospitals in the country. Uhealth include the Bascom Palmer Eye Institute ranked number one by US News and World Report for 11 years in a row and it also includes the world renowned Sylvester Comprehensive Cancer Care Center. If want to see what health care is going to look like in the future just ask these guys.
You know you can learn more about Uhealth through the Uhealth discovery series, it’s online now at uhealthdiscovery.com it focuses on different departments, doctors and patients that make Uhealth great and the breakthrough discoveries they’re changing healthcare for the better. They’re doing some really innovative and interesting things and they figured out a way to use a person’s own adult stem cells to regrow dead heart tissue.
That means that if you ever get a heart attack they can help you save yourself. You know there’s always some new to discover at Uhealth and you never know it could be just what you’re looking for. So discover how breakthrough medicine from Uhealth can work for you. Call 305-243-4000 or visit uhealthdiscovery.com to learn more today.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
James: All right. We are back with my good friend Dr. David Williams. Dr. Williams has been an economic counselor of the governor and all kinds of smart people, he’s even smart himself. And David William’s he’s the President of Florida Economic Consulting Groups.
He focuses on economic consulting related to the forensic, litigation and economics impact analysis. He worked for 5 years in Tallahassee is the acting chief economist in the Governor’s office in the Graham-Martinez administration. Welcome back to the show.
David: Good to see you Jimbo.
James: All right. Let’s just get right to it. So how it the US macro economic outlook looking now?
David: Those are big words, are they?
James: Yeah. I wrote down I still butchered it.
David: Moving along quite nicely Jim. The unemployment right now in October was under 6 a 5.8 percent and back in October of 2009 we were over 10 percent. Quarterly real GDP growth is picking up, oil prices lower keeping inflation in check. It’s shame to see Russia and countries like that struggling isn’t it Jim?
James: It really, really stinks to see Russia taking it in the neck on these old prices.
David: So things are looking relatively rosy. There is one negative and that would be possibly the paralysis in Congress. However, you know some people don’t dislike like that. The status quo, tax wise financially, is not a terrible thing. I don’t think Obama and Speaker Boehner or Bono, I don’t know which one is …
David: Vano not Bono will be exchanging Christmas cards which is not the worst thing in the world. So things are looking quite good.
James: So you know, to me I’m in the real estate business. So I just want to know what’s going on in the interest rate in the future and for years now people have been saying that interest rates are artificially depressed. But now the feds have stopped buying bonds but is demands rising enough to cause an interest increase?
David: Interest rates should start rising next day and steadily for the next two, three, four years.
James: No …
David: Yes. Yes. You are correct Jim, that the interest rates are somehow artificially low. With the economy picking up, demand will pick up and the Federal Reserve and Yellen the first woman to be president of the Federal Reserve and hopefully we will have female next president, right?
James: I don’t know, I’m purple I’m not taking sides.
David: Okay. Good for you. So interest rates will start heading up but not dramatically.
James: Okay. Well you know I would think that the oil price decrease, oh my God it’s going down 10 percent in just the last two weeks is really more like economic stimulus. And if you add economic stimulus to an up taking economy that spells inflation.
David: I’m all for stimulus Jim.
James: Yeah. That’s what I heard.
David: Obviously a very positive thing having negative interest rates unless you’re in the Shale Industry in the US.
James: Although Shale Industry guys they’re expensive producers. You’re going to be squeezed that’s part of OPEC strategy.
David: Your know that takes me back to Economics 2013 at the University of Florida in Gainesville.
James: Oh yeah. Is that where I hit you at the back the head with that piece of paper to wake you up?
David: And Dr. Dave Denslow it was all about supply and demand.
James: Oh that guy who had the ice cream cone in the forehead?
David: Dr. Dave.
Speaker 1: I love that guy.
James: What about him?
David: Well I mean it was all supply and demand. Excess supply, increase demand so yes …
James: So here’s my favorite chart right here Dave, supply and demand.
David: There you go.
James: And it intersects where I do my derivatives. It’s the only time have a no derivative in economics.
David: Good for you.
James: I learned I got to be on, I actually got a thing on that one I think. So Dave what’s going on — oh this is my favorite. You called the stock market turn the last time. What’s going to happen next year to the stock market? Are we over valued or undervalued or valued just right?
David: We are right around the fair market value right now. And as interest rates, the expectation in interest rates will rise next year. Bonds will not look quite as attractive as they have in this year and that money will flow into equity. So you know we’ve had a major bull market for over 5 years now.
And it could well be running out of steam but I would take a good — I could see next year in a more modest 5 to 10 percent range. I don’t want to see anymore irrational exuberance in the stock market.
James: Well I don’t think you’re going to see much irrational exuberance. I think that the stock market just going to reflect what people think, but if people are thinking good then the stock market’s going to keep going goo. So what’s …
David: You were saying Jim?
James: Yeah. I was reading question five that you would give me but I couldn’t read that on the radio. So why don’t we talk about what else you see coming up next year you crazy man. Did you see that? Did you help him write that? You two guys are silly.
David: I was just checking if you’re reading the questions.
James: I’m always reading the questions but sometimes but sometimes I just channel it? So listen, you know what’s going on? Where would you be putting your money because what’s going to me and the economy right now is that there’s a very uncomfortable chasing of yield going on which is increasing artificially the values of certain asset classes, real estates.
So you know, what’s going to happen as the rates go up is value going to decline with that increase in rates or values going to stay high because people can’t get enough of the products they want to invest in. How’s that for a good question?
David: That was a excellent question Jim and I still think …
James: We’re out of time. Go ahead Dave, I’m sorry.
David: I think equity is the way to go. If you want your 5, 10 percent yields I think equity stocks is the way to go.
James: Okay. Are you like stock picking or you’re just saying Y-D-S and P?
David: I like healthcare.
David: I do.
James: Really? Yeah I’m not a fan of the stock pit.
David: No. I mean, I don’t like to do individual stock picks but I want to look at sectors, healthcare done very well recently and you know the demographics of this country, we are getting older and it’s hard to see a lack of demand for healthcare in the future.
James: What are some of other sectors that you like?
David: I like technology and I like healthcare.
James: Well sounds to me like you like the outlook of the future of the United States.
David: And I don’t dislike Japan.
James: Really? Deflation, downgrading?
David: I like, I think …
James: You think there’s value plays in Japan?
David: I wouldn’t say a ridiculously high percentage but I can see there are signs that Japan is slowly turning around. And Europe is a little bit flat but you know the US is the strongest economy in the world. And that’s where I’m going to stick most of my money.
James: Oh high five from me leaving here now, one last question what about the staying together of the British, The United Kingdom if you will? What’s the impact on that? Since you’re a Welshman, you go to Wales all the time. You even got a representative here in the building today from
David: Wales, he’s not a rugby player. I have the Welsh version of Rory McIlroy sitting right next to me here.
James: He’s hitting it long and straight huh?
David: Listen to this name ladies and gentlemen Evan Griffith.
James: Can you say that again as an American?
David: Evan Griffith
James: There you go.
David: 19 the youngest Welsh amateur champion. Say a few words Evan.
James: That’s enough.
David: That was deep.
James: Well when I was 17, 18.
David: He’s 20, he just turned 20.
James: Oh my God. Why are you here? On exchange program? Tournament. How does he know you?
David: We’re connected.
James: Oh yeah.
David: All Welsh people know each other.
James: All right. Well we’ve got one more minute left. Does somebody need an expert witness, two minutes left. Okay so let’s talk about what …. Now you don’t know what to talk about for two minutes. So you do expert witness testimony, talk a little about that and how people can find you. If they need some help with their forensic testimony.
David: Well I do litigation work, forensic work and any case involve an injury, death, business damages, lost, discrimination anything where there’s a quantifiable lost. I work for both plaintiffs and defendants. I have website www.floridaeconomics.net and I testify in deposition in court and I’ve been doing this for 25 years.
James: That’s realty boring. Let’s go back to talking about the kid that plays golf. If people want to get a hold of you, how do they find you?
David: Find me on the website www.floridaeconomics.net or just Google me.
James: Oh man, my favorite economist, always has a smile, always comes with a joke. Always nows what he’s talking about and pretty much always picks the turn in the stock market. David Williams, my man in economics thanks for coming in David. Wanda it’s yours, we’ll be right back with what’s going to go on with your healthcare this year with the new, early — whatever they call it for affordable healthcare. It’s not early renewal, what is it? Open enrollment. Back after this.[COMMERCIAL BREAK]
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James: All right. You know it’s open enrollment for ObamaCare. Now what do you do? We’ve got James Eric Ross, he’s the seasoned licensed healthcare insurance agent from Southwest Florida. We’re going to discuss the five keys to choosing the right health plan for you, your family, your employees. Eric are you out there? Wanda? Eric, Eric.
Eric: Yes Sir.
James: Eric is actually there Wanda. You magically made him appear. So Eric what’s going on?
Eric: Not much. I just wanted to thank you so much for an opportunity to go and help America figure this out. You know you’re a smart guy Jim, do you know what’s going on?
James: Yeah. I know that I’m sticking with my healthcare plan because I can’t figure out what else to do.
Eric: Well that’s we’ll do. We’re all about education. Not in doctor nation. And I think one of the key things is what we want to do is allow people to see that you have options in life. Last times I check was citizens of this great country and I want to be able to share those keys of how you can make the right decision about the health care.
James: So what are the options for health insurance? Is there one, two, three a menu? Tell me.
Eric: Yeah. There’s three options right now. What we talked about are finding out the needs of those individuals. So we do a specific health needs analysis and the three options are; the temporary plan that you can get from all the major carriers that golden rule, that’s Blue Cross Blue Shield, Aetna, Humana.
You can get an ACA compliant plan which basically is ObamaCare and that set up, whether you need it or not they have nailed it in there essential health benefit and minimum essential coverage. That regardless if you need it or not like unlimited maternity, unlimited depended coverage, my wife is not pregnant, we don’t have any kids so we have to pay for it, that’s the second option is ACA.
The third option I call is a 21st century plan. The 21st century plan because we live in the 21st century why not use 21st technology as an on demand component to it Jim. It’s really cool, we live in an on demand society should not health insurance be the same?
James: Yeah. But here’s the real problem I have Eric, is it’s complicated, it’s confusing. I’ve got something that seems to work even though it really rocks me sometimes when I have to pay the gold plated high deductible plan. So it just rolls you if there’s a problem. It’s just unbelievable this stuff that you are doing.
Eric: So let me ask you a question. Did you drive to work today?
Eric: Do you know 100 percent how the combustible engine works operates from the time you turn the key until you reach your destination? Can you explain that in detail?
James: Let’s see it throws a spark, the spark ignites oxygenated gasoline which …
Eric: Oh come on. Less than one percent of America knows that. But my point is. Even though, even though. You don’t know how the car works. You still use get the benefit of driving it.
James: That was a trick question.
Eric: That is a trick question. But what my point is if that when you have an expert. When you have someone that has been doing this as long as we have then you’re set up for success. If you’re in a situation where you don’t have someone or you go to a computer, the whole computer is not tell you hey do you know if you the HSA you’re going to save more money? We tell you that.
James: Well here’s my real question with what’s going on today. You know you just read that as a component I didn’t really understand the article as a component of healthcare cost of going up the least amount this year then the last I don’t since 1960 or something. But to me my healthcare cost is going through the roof. What’s really going on?
Eric: Well I think that’s a great question and there’s lot people don’t understand that there’s some smoke and mirrors here and it’s called maximum out of pocket. If you remember one thing coming from my voice today, that’s what I want you to remember. What your maximum out of pocket means is how much at the end of the day is James going to pay for his family of four.
And if you understand the components, and I’m not going into the minutiae of it. That’s what my whole point is, the family four with their out of pocket expense. Now that lab work that all the stuff that they do, incidentals, in a year now there’s something that they call naked insurance.
Now I’m not being pornographic Jim. Naked insurance means that you have come out of pocket your deductible and you say you have that Cadillac plan with my deductible zero. And I go what’s your maximum out of pocket? Because they always have maximum out of pocket. Say it’s $5,000.00 and you’re paying, how much are you paying if you don’t mind me asking for that Cadillac plan come on?
James: Well I’m not really a good example because my wife has a significant situation so we also have a hole in the doughnut coverage. But my overall insurance is about $1,200.00 for just my wife and I.
Eric: Okay. So let’s just say …
James: And I pay major deductibles and I pay co-pays that are 10 times what they were just 3-4 years ago. And the real issue that I have, I have a different healthcare requirement than a 25 year old guys that’s on the same policy on my firm. So you see it’s really thought to make one of these policies work for everyone in the office.
Eric: That’s right. And that is where we come in because we can take — let me give you an example. There’s an electrical contractor here where I am in Southwest Florida and they have 20 people. I can’t help all of them but I can help 12 or them and save their company over $2,000.00 per month because they don’t have to pay for the stuff they don’t need.
They have a premium guaranteed for 36 months, so whatever the company does in 2015, they pay the same amount in 2018 and I don’t know anybody who can say that. That 21st century plan that’s set health Americans for victory.
James: You know, it’s really amazing. I have that the President had everybody in mind and potentially the drug and healthcare company as well when he tried get this through. The great benefit of this is when her wife gets her transplant and she goes off of Medicare, Medicaid or whatever she’s on I don’t know.
Now I will be able to get her insurance where before I couldn’t and all the drugs would have just eat me alive price wise.
Eric: And again I get back to our point about predictable premiums. We’re small business owners right? And as small business owner, I want to know predict what my benefits are going to be for my health insurance, predict what my premium can be month after month.
James: Oh yeah. Go ahead I kept going oh yeah because I agree with you. To me small business is all about the variance so if I can stay away from having a variance. It’s very important to me predicting my cash out lay in a month to month, week to week , day to day basis is very important to me managing my business.
Eric: What you said something earlier and I couldn’t agree with you more because that’s where our specific and our basically exclusive health needs analysis comes in. Not everyone’s the same. You can’t treat everyone the same even though they want us to be treated like sheeple, Jim Fried is a unique rare being an his family should be viewed in that way.
And that’s the way we do and I think we’re on to something because people are just like — you remember the movie Network? I think… it was I don’t know if I can stand, I can’t take anymore…
James: Yeah we can tell you don’t live in Miami, they play that at the Heat game. But yeah I know that one. And of course it drives me crazy, it drives me absolutely crazy. There’s got to be a place, got to be a way, got to be method that people can get the information they need to make sure that their healthcare is as good as it can get.
Because that is the most important thing there is. The ability to stay healthy is the number one thing, keeping your body in shape and in health is the number one thing if that’s going you can tackle every problem.
Eric: Because part of wealth care is you could have a billion dollar and not be able to lift your head from the pillow and what good is it. Wealth care is healthcare. And I want to let you know that guys as innovators, as advocated, an advocate for the citizens of the United States we felt it incumbent upon us to create a website that people could go to and find out those five keys and find out for free.
If it doesn’t solve anything you have access to all different types of situations and scenarios where we will find a right plan for your family, for your business, for you because there is no best plan anymore. That went away with the triceratops. What we have is the website, you can go to acaroadmap.com that’s acaroadmap.com and find out.
Take your money back America, because it’s your money. If you go and do this blindly and don’t find out your option I don’t know what to tell you, because ignorance here is not an option. That is why we are so persistent in what we’re doing Jim.
James: You know really I do want to give a shout out to Bill Robinson. Bill Robinson’s the guy that got us together. Bill is the main reason why we’re working today and Bill has really helped me build my brand, my show over the years. Bill was with me in the early years. I want to thank you Eric for coming in the show and really helping us out and really highlighting this issue. Again, if people want to get you, the phone number and the website please.
Eric: It’s 941-875-4144 and the website acaroadmap.com. Give us a shout, you’ll be glad you did.
James: Eric Ross, healthcare aficionado. Helping to make America healthy and great. Eric, thanks for being on the show.
Eric: Thank you so much Jim. God Bless you and God Bless America.
James: Oh couldn’t said better myself. All right, Wanda how much time do I have left. Oh I got forever. This is terrific. You know we had a great show today, it’s our December kickoff show. We started off and talked about the DUIs with Jonathan Blecher and I want to thank my old friend Jonathan Blecher.
Thank goodness I’ve never use his legal counsel but he’s a wonderful friend and a terrific guy. And somebody that if you do have a problem that’s is his bailiwick he will be your advocate, he’s the greatest. We talked to Louis Archambault about being a CCIM and a lawyer, terrific. David R. William, my funniest segment of the month. And of course Eric Ross talking about open enrollment of ObamaCare. Thank you to all my guests.
I want to thank South Florida. Our sponsors, South Florida Business and Wealth Magazine, CCIM, UHealth, University of Miami Health Care, Terek Maddox, Warren Henry Automotive, the NFL Alumni Association of South Florida, the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Marlins, Social Media 305, Lauren’s Kids, The Aztec Crew, the Bergstrom for Center for Estate Studies, UHealth and I want to thank you our listeners. You know go to our Facebook page, like our show and tell you friends. Join our community, give us feedback and comments. Tell us who you want to hear from. We’ve been listening to the traffic so stop dazzling and bazzling.
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Remember this is not a rehearsal. This is your life, the person that wants to do something finds a way, the other finds the excuse. Now go out there and make it happen.