Episode 298: 01-08-15
CCIM Spotlight with Paul White
Paul L. White, CCIM, CPM®, CSM, RPA is Director, Commercial Division for KW Commercial in Miami-Dade County, heading up their commercial real estate brokerage department and is a member of the Commercial Leadership Council of KW Commercial.
White has more than 37 years of experience in the real estate field with responsibilities including property management, commercial brokerage, construction, marketing, development and accounting for such clients as Prudential, Travelers, Allstate, General Electric Capital Corporation, FDIC, foreign owners and over 30 receiverships.
White is the 2010 Florida CCIM Chapter President and is the Treasurer of the IREM South Florida Chapter. He is also an IREM instructor and an adjunct instructor with the CCIM Institute.
We discuss current market conditions, how the CCIM has helped him build his business and the 2015 CCIM Commercial Real Estate Conference which is on Wednesday, January 21.
ObamaCare Open Enrollment
Open enrollment is here and as citizens of the United States we are all required to purchase health insurance before 2-15-15 or be subject to a TAX.
James “Eric” Ross, a seasoned licensed health agent from SW Florida, discusses the five keys to choosing the RIGHT health plan for you, your family and your employees.
Millions of Americans don’t have the education or knowledge to grasp that ACA/ObamaCare is NOT the only option out there. Eric has made it his mission to share with healthy Americans that there IS an alternative and for those that DO need an ACA compliant plan we have those available as well.
We focus on the fact that “when it comes to choosing the RIGHT health insurance for your family, do NOT lean on your own understanding.” He has access to ALL the carriers and plans. He has created a health needs analysis that, by your answers, will reveal the plan that fits your situation.
It’s ObamaCare open enrollment season. Now what?
Affordable Care in South Florida
Olveen Carrasquillo, M.D., M.P.H., professor of medicine and public health sciences, has been named Director of the Division of Health Services Research and Policy in the Department of Public Health Sciences a national leader in primary care and health disparities, has conducted extensive research on health insurance and access to care among minority and other vulnerable populations.
At the Miller School, he is leading several NIH-funded randomized studies examining community-based strategies to improve healthcare among racially and ethnically diverse populations.
We discuss the impact of the Affordable Care Act on the access to health care in South Florida.
Commercial Real Estate Forecast 2015
Jim is involved in real estate transactions across the Southeastern United States. He capitalizes, sells and invests in hotels, apartments, shopping centers, urban land, office buildings and more. He will give his opinion on what may happen in commercial real estate in 2015.
Episode 298: 01-08-15 (To download, right-click and select “Save Link As”.)
Jim Fried: Alright welcome to 2015. It’s Fried on Business. We’ve got an excellent show. First of all the market recovered, gained 300 points today. Today we are going to have our CCIM spotlight with my good friend, Paul White. We are going to talk about what’s going on in the open enrollment period for ObamaCare and then we’re going to talk about how to get access to affordable health care in South Florida as well as what to do during the flu season. I’ll end the show with my view on commercial real estate this month, what we’re going to see in commercial real estate in 2015. Wanda we’ve got a caller. Alright lets put him on. Alright Richard are you out there?
Richard Berkowitz: Hi Jim.
Jim Fried: Hey Wanda turn down the music. Thank you Wanda. Hey Richard how are you doing today?
Richard Berkowitz: I’m doing just great. How about you?
Jim Fried: Alright we have Richard Berkowitz. Richard, gosh you are the senior partner at your firm, what’s your role up there?
Richard Berkowitz: I am the CEO of Berkowitz, Pollack, Brant and Chairman of Provenance Wealth Advisers.
Jim Fried: Alright but you also play a very prominent role in our community. What’s going on in our community that you’re doing these days?
Richard Berkowitz: Jim, I wanted to tell you a little bit about the Dolphins Cycling Challenge 5.
Jim Fried: Okay.
Richard Berkowitz: The Dolphins Cycling Challenge 5 is about cancer. Cancer is the plaque of our generation. It strikes randomly, young or old, male or female, rich or poor. Cancer doesn’t care who you are, doesn’t care what you do or what you stand for, and the Dolphins Cycling Challenge is about supporting the great people over at the Sylvester Compressive Cancer Center and they are an incredible group of people who are really building an institution which is the per-eminent research and scientific organization in our community trying to cure cancer.
Jim Fried: Well Richard when is the event and how do people get more information?
Richard Berkowitz: Well the event is February 7th and February 8th. We’re out 30 days and so far we have about 2000 people signed up to walk, run and ride in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County. We’ve already raised about 3.3 million dollars and we’re headed to 6 million dollars and that 6 million dollars is going towards trying to make Sylvester Compressive Cancer Center a National Cancer Institute designated cancer center.
Jim Fried: Wow!
Richard Berkowitz: There’s none in South Florida, one in Florida and there are 10 in California. So, we are under served as a population. When you get that kind of designation then you get grants and you get great docs and other people are attracted to our community to help us fight cancer. So, this is a really important step in trying to help them do that and create a National Cancer Institute designated facility in South Florida. You need to go to www.ridedcc.com or just search Dolphins Cycling Challenge and it will come right up and that’s how you come to us.
Jim Fried: Well I’m really excited. I’m sponsoring team Goldsmith and sponsoring Dennis Patton, I guess at this point I’m sponsoring you too.
Richard Berkowitz: It’s easy to do. You can go right through the website and do that right away and I really appreciate it.
Jim Fried: It’s our pleasure but you know we didn’t have enough time to talk about this, can I get you to come on the show next week and talk about this and maybe do a little bit more in depth?
Richard Berkowitz: I would love to come on this show Jim. It would be a great honor.
Jim Fried: Well I would be thrilled to have you Richard. We’ll look for you, Wanda will set that up. My folks will call you Richard. We’ll coordinate with your assistant. I look forward to seeing you next week. Richard Berkowitz thanks again for calling in on the DCC Challenge. What’s the website they go to to register and sign up?
Richard Berkowitz: Search Dolphins Cycling Challenge or www.ridedcc.com. Love your show. Love listening to you. Love today’s show. I’m going to hang on and listen to it. It’s a great show.
Jim Fried: Thank you so much Richard, looking forward to seeing you soon. Thank you so much for all the great things you do for our community.
Richard Berkowitz: Thanks Jim.
Jim Fried: Oh my pleasure. Wanda take it away. We’ll be right back. We’re going to have Paul White. We are going to talk about how the CCIM helped Paul build his career. Back after this.[Commercial break]
Jim Fried: Alright Wanda has pointed at us and that means are you ready for this? We’ve got Paul White. We are going to do our CCIM profile. Paul is a former president of CCIM. We are going to talk about all kinds of things CCIM but I can’t get it started without giving him a fist bump for the Georgia Tech Orange Bowl win. Here you go bud.
Paul White: Well thank you very much Jim.
Jim Fried: Alright.
Paul White: It was a great victory.
Jim Fried: Now listen Paul before we get rolling lets talk a little bit about what’s coming up in a couple of weeks. I know that you were very instrumental in this. In getting started the CCIM Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference and I know we’ve got something coming up. I see Mike Silver is going to speak. Is he going to wear a dress again?
Paul White: No but he does wear an interesting hat and makes a fantastic forecast.
Jim Fried: Well tell me about some of the other people that you’ve got coming.
Paul White: We’ve got a great lineup. We’ve got Arnaud Karsenti from 13th Floor Investments. He’s heavily involved in the condo development and multi-family market. He’s going to be telling us what’s happening because that’s been very hot here but might be cooling off.
Jim Fried: Well he’s really hot and I know he hasn’t cooled off. They’ve been tearing down stuff and building on it. High five to Arnaud. He’s terrific. I see you’ve got my buddy John Crossman, he’s a guest on our show. What’s he talking about?
Paul White: John’s going to be talking about the retail market. His company is based out of Orlando and has made in roads into the Miami market and he’s going to bring an interesting perspective as to how he sees our retail market.
Jim Fried: Well lets see whose the keynote speaker?
Paul White: Keynote speaker is George Ratiu, he’s the Director of Quantitative and Commercial Research for the National Association of Realtors. He spoke for us two years ago and was well received. He did great research on Miami and what’s happening in our marketplace.
Jim Fried: Yeah but anybody with the term quantitative in their title kinds of gets me, you know, we’ll have to give him a hard time. Maybe we’ll interview him beforehand. Now you’ve got a guy doing capital markets right?
Paul White: Marty Busekrus. He is a great, great guy. He did it last year, gave a very clear, precise prediction of what he thought the capital markets were going to do and I think he was quite accurate and from what we’ve seen. So, he’s going to tell us how that came out and what he sees for 2015.
Jim Fried: And now how about office, whose covering office for you?
Paul White: We have Tony Puente a well known commercial broker with Fairchild Partners. Been active in the office market for many years, extremely knowledgeable, does great research and he’s going to be giving us the scoop on office.
Jim Fried: Yeah, I consider Fairchild one of the go to folks here in town. Now you’ve got my old friend, Lew Goodkin. My friend from the UF Center for Real Estate Studies. I guess Lew is our futurist huh?
Paul White: Yes, he is. We are bringing him in, for the first time we are going to have Lew and he’s going to sort of wrap things up, give a summary of what he’s heard and what he specifically sees for the Miami market.
Jim Fried: Well darn, I’m glad I’m going. It sounds like a great morning and I’m looking forward to networking with all my friends. We’ll be broadcasting live. It will be our 300th show. I can’t wait to be surrounded by all the positive energy. Thank God the real estate market is smoking right now.
Paul White: You know that’s what our theme is. Catching fire and the sky is the limit so we are taking off.
Jim Fried: Alright now Paul we talked about the conference, lets talk a little bit about you. You were involved in the CCIM, why are you with CCIM?
Paul White: Well I wanted the education and I found much more when I went to get the education. I found a network of commercial brokers throughout the country extremely knowledgeable, you can refer a business to and receive referrals from them, and then they also gave me the technical background using Excel spreadsheets to analyze property, understanding CAP rates, internal rate return, annual operating statements. So, it was a fantastic education that really rounded out my real estate career.
Jim Fried: I mentioned it before but you were President of the Florida chapter, not just South Florida, you’re a big shot.
Paul White: Well it was a real honor to be able to do that because Florida is the largest chapter of the 60 chapters throughout the United States with over 700 members, and I was very fortunate to have the opportunity to lead them in 2010.
Jim Fried: Now I teased a little bit beforehand but you really were there at the start of the conference and the conceptualization, how did that all come about?
Paul White: We activated the Miami district about a year before the conference and we wanted to do something special for the Miami real estate commercial market. And, we had so many different outlook conferences that go to different real estate disciplines so we decided we didn’t have enough time to attend all of them so we wanted to put on one that was concentrated, that had many different disciplines by people who really do the deals and know the market. And that’s how we select our speakers.
Jim Fried: And I’ll tell you the event is what I would consider a marketplace. I go and I see certain people who I only use once a year and I’ll see them at the event. I look forward to going to the event and seeing everybody, seeing my friends like you, like Ed, like Frank. So, you started the conference, you got it together to make it efficient, we talked a little bit about the speakers, why don’t we talk a little bit about how you see the market right now. You’ve been down here for quite some time. I know you’ve been practicing commercial real estate since the early ’70s. What is it about today and what is your reference from the past give you as far as what you see coming down the road?
Paul White: Well this is my seventh recession I’ve been through. It’s been the slowest recovery but I believe the momentum is building up. It just seems to be on the verge of bursting. We’ve talked about in our conferences the last two years. We’re bumping along the bottom. We’re trying to get into flight and I think we’re at the point now we’re really going to soar. We’ve had some very strong markets, our industrial market has been very strong. Retail wasn’t hurt that much but we’re going to see some of these other markets now really take off.
Jim Fried: What do you see…Wanda how much more time do we have? One minute oh my gosh. Well Paul we’ve only got a minute left so if people want to work with a real pro, how do they find you?
Paul White: They can do a search for us, Goggle CCIM and they’ll get a directory where they can enter a city or a company name and they can find CCIM locally or they can actually find them across the nation if they have a requirement somewhere else.
Jim Fried: Now we’ve got about 30 seconds left, what do you think is the one sector of all the others that provides good opportunity this year?
Paul White: This year, I’m hoping it’s going to be office. I’ve seen office lag for a while but I see it picking up, people are expanding, companies are coming into Miami, so I think office is going to catch up with the other market segments.
Jim Fried: You know I kind of agree with you. In fact, I know a number of people that are looking to build offices in certain niches, and I really think office is going to catch on. I think that you’ll need office in all the sub-markets. I don’t think you’ll be seeing a lot of big buildings but I think you’ll be seeing 50-100,000 square foot buildings starting to get going.
Paul White: Yeah, I think you’re right. The developers are ready to go and the market is tightening up, and by the time they deliver the space we should have a very good market and be able to justify the rents that they are going to need.
Jim Fried: Well Paul thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for profiling the CCIM Commercial Real Estate Outlook Conference and we look forward to seeing you, Sandra, Frank, and the rest of the team, Ed and everybody else out at the conference in a couple of weeks.
Paul White: I’ll see you at the conference.
Jim Fried: Alright high five. Wanda it’s all yours, take it away.[commercial break]
Jim Fried: Alright we are back and we are badder than ever, and we’ve got Eric Ross. Eric was on a couple of weeks ago before the holiday started at the beginning of open enrollment for health insurance and we had such a response. I got emails. I got texts. I got bunches of questions. We sent them the referrals, but we wanted to have him back here in January to talk more about open enrollment and the accessibility and how you get the health insurance. I know Wanda you’ve got to talk to him too. So Eric welcome back. Talk to me about healthcare.
Eric Ross: How’s my favorite prognosticator of all things business, Jim?
Jim Fried: I’m prognosticating pretty good. I’m doing great Eric. How about you?
Eric Ross: Happy New Year Jim.
Jim Fried: Happy New Year to you too but there’s a lot of people out there Eric that need you. I need you, my wife needs you, Wanda needs you, and a lot of our listeners need you because they are faced with the Rubik’s Cube of health insurance.
Eric Ross: I like that, the Rubik’s Cube. I’ll tell you Jim we have three real issues here. You have the landscape of what’s going on, you have the challenges and then you have the solutions. The landscape right now is that the law has been passed. Okay, we can’t go back to that. Most small businesses are opposed to it. It’s mandatory coverage for all plans and whether you need that coverage or not. The challenge is that there skyrocketing and there’s less choices for alternatives out there. And, there’s a lot of confusion regarding maximum out of pocket that people have and it all stems from lack of education. What we believe, Jim, is that we can be that single source to create the solution. The solution is us, this AVA roadmap is Eric Ross and the single source starts with education. It follows up with guidance and we get all the people insured and the way that we are able to do that it all starts with the Health Needs Analysis, Jim. The Health Needs Analysis tells me where we can put that individual and we can cover all the plans. You’ve talked to one of my team members. Tell me a little bit about that.
Jim Fried: Well it was really great. Your team member was terrific because I have an absolutely because I have a very unique, but I don’t want to say unique, but a very difficult situation. I really don’t want to talk about it in too much detail but I’m healthy, nonsmoker, and I’m a big utilizer of services because of my back and then my wife is on dialysis and needs a kidney transplant. So, we’ve got some government sprinkled in there, we’ve got me sprinkled in there, she’s unemployed and disabled, so we’ve got some challenges at times about getting what we need done if you will. So, her full time job is getting better. It seems sometimes my full time job is paying for the insurance.
Eric Ross: That’s right. You’re not alone in that and what I’ve said before and what I want to promote right now is the fact is that it’s all about being educated. The best educated person wins and in this case winning means that you’re in a plan that’s right for you. So, if you need all of those extra services hey lets take care of that for you through the Health Needs Analysis but if you’re a healthy American for God’s sake lets help you do that too. The way that we get that done is through Webinars, every Saturday through open enrollment, Jim, there’s only 37 days left, only 37 days before open enrollment ends. If you don’t have that exception which would be a divorce, would be moving, would be a new job, or an injury that laid you up then you can’t get insurance outside of open enrollment. But with the alternatives, which we have, you can. So, stayed tuned on www.acaroadmap.com and get to our webinar this Saturday, which starts at 10:00 a.m. this Saturday.
Jim Fried: Okay and your link is on my website and on our flier. But Eric, what are some of the pitfalls…Well I’m a client I’m just going to talk. To me the biggest pitfall is fear and the fact that you don’t know what to do so you’re paralyzed. In the end you may end up with the wrong plan or the person that’s buying the plan for your small business may have a focus that’s inconsistent with yours. I’ll give you an example. It may be that the person that’s buying the plan doesn’t use a lot of healthcare or they’re really cheap and they want to give you like store brand instead of Bounty, you know, come on.
Eric Ross: Right.
Jim Fried: So, I want the Bounty.
Eric Ross: I hear what you’re saying.
Jim Fried: I want Bounty not the paper towel that’s like copy paper.
Eric Ross: A piece of copy paper which is not good. You have procrastination. You have silo perspective which means that you are only listening to someone who only does Blue Cross or only sell United Healthcare and the big five out there Aetna, Humana, Cigna, Blue Cross Assurance, we cover all of those plus the alternatives. So, we want you to take away that procrastination. We want to give you a broad scope perspective, a global perspective, and we want to takeaway that confusion. Won’t you allow us to take that away?
Jim Fried: Now when I get a global perspective and the confusion and the cloud of/the fog of war of healthcare goes away, what is it that I would see if I’m sitting down and speaking with you or one of your associates?
Eric Ross: You would absolutely see the three options that are available to us today. You can go to my YouTube channel under James Eric Ross. We show you the three options that you have, which is a temporary plan which I don’t recommend unless in certain situations yes. You have an ACA compliant plan and then you have a 21st century alternative which is for healthy Americans. These are people that don’t take medications and maybe have a little high blood pressure or a little cholesterol, so you would see how those three options work with inpatient and outpatient. So, we are going to show you the catastrophic and how each work and what your out of pocket would be for those three scenarios. You know what we’re going to show during everyday use.
Jim Fried: You know Eric.
Eric Ross: The second piece we’re going to show the typical everyday use, that prescription, that’s doctor’s visits, that’s specialists visits, physicals and the like. What people find is they get really excited because they’re like oh that wasn’t so bad because they are making this into a monster and it’s not a monster. It’s not difficult you just have to do it and we want to take this off your to do list.
Jim Fried: Now Eric one of the things I’d like you to do or maybe Bill can do it is why don’t you flip me a link to that YouTube video so that we can put it up on our website?
Eric Ross: I’d love that.
Jim Fried: I think it would be very helpful to get out there, maybe we can get social media 305 to tweet it out for us and put it up on Facebook too. I think it’s very important that people see things like that.
Eric Ross: Critical.
Jim Fried: Now lets say you’re just a person, you’re on your own, you’re young, you’re healthy, why should you get health insurance?
Eric Ross: That’s a great question. Well first of all it is a mandate and it’s subject to, not a penalty. A lot of people call it a penalty but it’s a tax. The other thing is if you have something to protect and I know a lot of kids that are 28-35 that are making good incomes, Jim. They are out there and they’re hustling. They are making a six figure income. Now to me if you don’t pay less than $200 a month, if I can get them a robust plan that’s going to protect their assets, that’s why we have insurance.
Jim Fried: Well, you know, I always felt that insurance is extremely important and you don’t even realize it until for instance the other income in your two income household goes away.
Eric Ross: That’s right and that’s the worst time to realize it. That’s reactive and we want to be proactive.
Jim Fried: Now if somebody wants to be proactive, they’ve finally figured out that they need to do something. They’ve gotten off the couch but it’s 38 days from now, what happens to them besides the fact that they incur a tax penalty?
Eric Ross: Well if they don’t get health insurance then obviously they are subjecting themselves to potential loss but they do have that issue with the tax. Other than that I mean there’s no Nazi death squad coming, you know, nothing like that.
Jim Fried: Thank goodness for that.
Eric Ross: Yeah.
Jim Fried: Now Eric what are some of the nuances? What’s the most interesting nuance that you’ve seen when you’ve been underwriting this stuff with some of your clients?
Eric Ross: When you say what are some of the nuances? What are some of the…What do you mean?
Jim Fried: You know some of the different things that somebody might not know and they go ah ha. Wow that’s interesting.
Eric Ross: That’s a great question. I think the biggest thing for me, Jim, is the fact is what are you spending the max out of pocket? What’s your maximum out of pocket? Let me give you an analogy. I love analogies, my father was the king of analogy. When there is someone who goes into a car dealership and all they are looking for is the monthly payment, they are dead in the water. The dealer knows that so they shift the terms so that it’s made to benefit the dealership. It’s no different with the smoking mirrors that these health insurance providers do for these Americans. Let me give you an example. You have a zero deductible but you have a maximum out of pocket of $5000. Well they’ve just shifted it. They didn’t call it a deductible but that means if you have a $10,000 surgery that you have an out of pocket of $5,000. So, I think it’s the maximum out of pocket, Jim, is what people have to focus on. How much are you going to pay for premium on a monthly basis and if you go to the doctor how much are you going to come out of pocket each time you do an outpatient, each time you see a specialist?
Jim Fried: Well it’s 100% ridiculous some of the costs unless you have the right policy and then there’s all different grades of policies. Wanda how much more time do I have? I got two minutes lets talk a little bit about bronze to platinum.
Eric Ross: Sure. So, a bronze plan is somehow who can’t typically afford it because, they call it the affordable act but I quite haven’t seen that yet. Let me give you an example. I am 48 years young. As a single a bronze plan for me is going to cost me as a nonsmoker is $560 per month. That same alternative plan is going to cost me $275 per month, fully half. The silver plan for me at 45 year old man with a family, two kids and a wife, that’s going to cost the silver plan which is a $3600 deductible, say for Blue Cross Blue Shield, that’s going to cost $1200 per month. Well I’m not great at math but isn’t that $14,400 a year plus they have an out of pocket maximum of around $6,500, so that’s $20,000 a year with premium plus with max out of pocket and to me paying almost $2,000 per month for month isn’t affordable.
Jim Fried: It’s crushing.
Eric Ross: The gold plan goes a bit lower, it’s on percentages so the platinum plan is going to pay the most and you’re going to pay the least. But, you’re not paying the least because it’s folded into a premium. A platinum plan for a couple who is 45 years old with two kids under the age of 20 is going to cost over $2000 a month.
Jim Fried: Well we’ve got to go but please what’s your website, your phone numbers, get me that link for YouTube.
Eric Ross: 844-253-7755 and you can go to www.acaroadmap.com. You will be glad you did.
Jim Fried: Hey Eric, thanks so much I’m looking forward to catching you again before the open enrollment ends. Wanda we’ll be right back after this short break. Again, thank you so much to Eric Ross. Back after this.[Commercial break]
Jim Fried: Alright, we are back. I’m just getting social here. Wanda was rockin out to the King back there and now we are going to talk about UHealth, you know, UHealth is our sponsor. It’s the University of Miami Medical System. They bring you the brightest minds and best care here in South Florida. UHealth is big. It includes more than 300 specialty doctors, dozens of locations from Miami to Palm Beach Gardens and now UHealth is in Plantation. What sets UHealth apart it’s the comprehensive approach they bring to healthcare. You might have several different doctors for a couple different health issues but do they ever talk to each other or cross reference your symptoms and medications to make sure your care is second to none, well at UHealth they do. I’m going to go off script here because over the holiday I was hospitalized and went to the University of Miami Hospital, I got admitted to the ER. I had some back issues. They fixed me up. They were great. I want to give a personal shout out to Martha Mucino, Andre Pucer, Roland, Fabian, Diegas, David Zambrana, Frank Pualla, Kimberly Manny and of course Dennis Patton who is the guy who fixed me up. I want to thank everybody at UHealth. A bunch of doctors. They got together, they pulled their expertise in their specialties and got me vertical and back for New Years. I want to thank everybody at UHealth. Thank you so much! Everybody discover how breakthrough medicine from UHealth can work for you call 305-243-4000 or visit www.uhealthdiscovery.com to learn more today.
Jim Fried: Alright we’re back. We had some King, then James Brown and a little healthcare access and the flu. We’ve got Dr. Olveen Carrasquillo. Did I get that right or even close?
Carrasquillo: That was close enough, Jim. Thank you very much and good to hear you’re doing much better.
Jim Fried: Oh yeah I’m doing a lot better. You can give Dr. Patton a high five. I’m going to see him again next week and he’s going to polish me up and I’m going to look like a bright shiny new apple. But, you know, I’ve got a couple things I want to talk to you about. Now you are the Director of Health Services Research and Policy in the Department of Public Health Sciences, you know, you’re a national leader in primary care and the disparity of healthcare in different populations. And so we live in South Florida and we’ve got a convergent population. The flu is on the rise. How do you get the word out to people who may not realize the access they have to quality healthcare about the flu and about UHealth?
Carrasquillo: I think it’s truly important that people have a primary care doctor already ahead of time and that they are doing a lot of the important stuff that for any illness is really important, things like good nutrition, doing exercise, maintaining healthy lifestyle. We in primary care say it’s all about the prevention and trying to prevent somebody from being ill, so I think that’s the number one priority when you talk about any disease prevention.
Jim Fried: Now I watch TV like we all do and when I see the people, and apparently it seems like a lot more in Asia, they walk around with a face mask. And then I go on a plane and somebody sneezes and I’m going how come I don’t have a face mask on? I mean is a face mask a little bit of an overreaction? Are we getting to the point that the transmission of diseases that we may need that kind of stuff?
Carrasquillo: Yeah, in general those little flimsy face masks that I see a lot of people at the airport and we laugh because we know they probably do nothing. They probably make you feel a lot better but there are some really important things people can do, especially during flu season. Most importantly there’s what the sick person can do and what the person who doesn’t want to get sick can do. If you don’t want to get sick, most importantly, avoid people who are sick. It sounds very simplistic.
Jim Fried: Yeah but you don’t know.
Carrasquillo: The people who are coughing and sneezing rather than trying to put on a flimsy mask, maybe you want to stay several feet away from them.
Jim Fried: Yeah but sometimes they take this flu medicine and they are not really coughing and sneezing a lot.
Carrasquillo: Yeah, we sometimes give them the pills. They are really effective within the first 12-24 hours of onset of symptoms. But I really tell people, this may sound very weird coming from a doctor, if you have the flu don’t come to the doctor. For most people unless they are in groups to talk about stay home because you are going to infect a whole lot of other people and we tell them if you are sick don’t come to my clinic and infect most of the other people. It’s a simple flu. Give me a call, send me an email and we can deal with it that way because you really don’t want to be that person that’s sneezing and coughing over everyone else.
Jim Fried: Oh yeah I hate that and by the time they’ve walked past me they’ve been killed a thousand times with the eye darts. Now what are some other things, I mean obviously simple washing hands. I saw Sanjay Gupta. He said sing happy birthday twice while you’re washing your hands to make sure you do it long and hard enough. What other kind of quick tips are there for the flu season?
Carrasquillo: The other big one we have washing your hands is key, the other one is those alcohol sanitizers. They actually do work. I keep one in my office. I use it a couple of times a day. Try to avoid things, you know, like on the train I see everybody touching those handrails, do not touch those handrails. I’d avoid, you know, door knobs and things like that. Easy sources of infection. So, that’s some of the general precautions people can do to try to prevent the flu. And, there is a vaccine which I was hoping we could talk a little bit about as well.
Jim Fried: Yeah, I want to talk about the vaccine, Tamiflu and all that other stuff. Because to me it sounds like a bunch of witch doctor stuff but does it work?
Carrasquillo: Yeah, the flu vaccine is a little bit of a guess every year. We try to guess which are the strains that are going to be coming out and we try to make the right strains to prevent the flu. Studies have shown that when you are vaccinated it dramatically reduces the chance of getting one of those bad strains of the flu that’s coming out that year. So, they definitely work in decreasing your chances. It’s not 100% but they definitely are very protective, especially if you have young kids, if you have bad illnesses like diabetes or other lung problems, but in general I tell everyone to just get the flu vaccine. You want to stay healthy and you want to go to work. You really don’t want the flu.
Jim Fried: I don’t want anybody with the flu in my office either. In fact when they come in I treat them like a periya. I don’t understand, you know, but I do understand that people who are paid hourly and they only have a certain amount of time they’ve got to come to work. So, I guess that the best way to do it is to be proactive on your own part like you said keep a little distance if they look a little sick, hand sanitizer, be the king of Purell, wash your hands. But what about the vaccinations and the Tamiflu and stuff like that? Does that really work?
Carrasquillo: For most people, I mean Tamiflu is really great, especially for these people who have other complications and they have a much higher risk of getting sick, especially the elderly. But, you really have to take it early on, which is important if you have a sudden onset of fever and severe muscle pains, that’s usually the main sign of the flu. And again, if you have a lot of these other things you may want to call the office and get some of these medicines because they can decrease the symptoms in some people if you take it right away. If you wait more than a day it’s not as effective.
Jim Fried: Now I want to talk a little bit about the accessibility of healthcare here in our society. I know that there’s a lot of people here in South Florida that don’t realize that they have access to high quality healthcare. How do you guys get the word out about that?
Carrasquillo: Yeah I mean we try to do that. Basically there’s a lot of marketing. We have a lot of other mechanisms to do that. I think every adult should really have a primary care doc. I mean everytime I see sometimes husbands being forced in by their wives and I ask them when did you last see a doctor and they’re like 15 years ago. I’m like you really need to have a doctor and try to see him every one to two years. Do a general checkup and then be able to have access. Now what we’re doing, even more than phone calls is emails, you know, you can send me a note. Somebody just sent me a note the other day, doctor high fever, lots of pain. I got this three years ago I think it’s the flu what should I do? And this person I went ahead and gave them one of the pills to try to shorten the duration of the illness.
Jim Fried: Oh great! It was exactly what you said. Don’t come, don’t get everybody sick, just send me a little info and I’ll send you the prescription. Now will Tamiflu make the flu bug get worse the way antibiotics is making, you know, MRSA and stuff get worse?
Carrasquillo: Yeah, the drug resistance hasn’t really been a concern yet. Remember the flu virus is the one the comes and changes every year.
Jim Fried: Oh that’s right.
Carrasquillo: So far it’s not been a major concern against the flu virus.
Jim Fried: Well listen doctor I want to thank you so much. If somebody wants to send you one of those inquiry emails, how do they get a hold of you?
Carrasquillo: It’s 305-243-4900 and ask to schedule an appointment with a primary care doc and we’ll all be glad to see you.
Jim Fried: Well listen I want to thank you so much for coming on and I really do appreciate, especially during flu season. I want to thank you so much Dr. Carrasquillo. Did I get it right at least?
Carrasquillo: You got it right. Oh there’s our website I forgot www.uhealth.com.
Jim Fried: I talked over, give it again the website.
Carrasquillo: I said www.uhealth.org.
Jim Fried: You’re the best Dr. Carrasquillo. Thank you so much. Wanda before we go I wanted to add a little thank you. When I was going through the laundry list of people that helped me I forgot the most important person, the person that quarterbacked it for me, the person that called in from her vacation to make sure I got treated like the star of the show Magaly Robitaille. I want to thank Magaly Robitaille for helping me get better. Thank you my wife. She’s the one who got me in touch. She’s the queen of UHealth. She’s the queen of my life. I love her. Thank you to the people at UHealth for keeping me healthy. We’ll be back after this.[Commercial break]
Jim Fried: Alright we’re back. There’s something I want to clear up that I talked about a little earlier when we were talking to Eric about health insurance and I referred to my wife. My wife is struggling and fighting a very serious illness. She’s my hero. She’s tough as nails. And while technically they say she is disabled when they are characterizing her for insurance purposes, the woman runs my life. She takes care of me. She makes sure I get a good night sleep and great food, look great, feel great and she’s my hookup at the University of Miami Health System. She’s my star. She’s the love of my life. She’s my wife, Vivian. She’s everything to me.
Now I want to talk a little bit about the economy here in South Florida in commercial real estate up in the coming year. The first thing that I see on the horizon is the potential implication of the strong dollar. Remember a lot of people from overseas have been buying condominiums here and that’s been driving our market. And, they are also coming and bringing their businesses. Well as the dollar strengthens…Think of it this way cost $100 a gallon the dollar was worth something, now that gas is $50 a gallon the dollar is twice a valuable. So just think of it as that, the dollar gets more valuable it gets stronger that means fewer people can buy our imports overseas and fewer people can bring their currency over here as they have lower buying power. So, there may be some impacts. However, I had this conversation this morning with somebody and I think that we ended up thinking that it may not have that much impact at all. Because even if your currency is decreasing with the dollar, you still want to get into America before your currency totally collapses against the dollar. So, I think in the near term things are going to be okay. I think in the long term there will probably be some type of action to stall the continued growth of the strong dollar as the oil producers continue to wage economic war on the United States. Did I really say that? Take a political position? Oh my God Wanda can you believe that?
Anyway so lets talk about some opportunities for the small investor, mom and pop and just the individual people who may have an asset or two. Time to buy a house? Yeah probably if you can get it all cash, if you can get financing it may certainly be time to buy a house. Because the federal government is starting to prime the pump for home buyers and the federal government is going to artificially prop up prices to keep them high. So now at the beginning of that cycle it’s probably time to get in there. I think that office, we talked to Paul White earlier today, office is definitely a space that you have to get into you’ve got to do it now. I think there’s going to be good demand for well positioned office space in high income markets. It’s places like Coral Gables, Coconut Grove, where there’s a big barrier entry. If you can pop an office building there I think you’re going to do great. Condominiums are still going up. You are starting to really see the skyline change as the presales of a couple of years ago are starting to take shape and soon those buildings will close. They’ll start closing deals and transactions probably later this year and so we’ll really see how strong the condo market is. Because remember there’s only been reservations and deposits, people haven’t closed yet. I think they are all going to close, a lot of them are going to close. I don’t think people walk away from 70% but I think that there will be some adjustment after the condominiums are up as a lot of those investors look to place those in the rental pool so that will impact the ability for rental apartments to do well. And, I think that rental apartments are strong and getting stronger. I can tell you right now I have my eye on a piece of dirt on Biscayne Boulevard that I think is the best last remaining apartment site. Why do I like it? Because I’ve got the listing and I think it’s a great location. Great regional location but notice I say it’s on Biscayne Boulevard because you can’t do rental on the water anymore, it costs too much. We talked about small business. How about retail? Retail has been real strong. It’s tough to build retail in South Florida in the urban core, not so much in the perimeter but retail is still good. Retail is changing though. You’re seeing small stores. You’re seeing more online delivery. You are seeing a pull back and a retrenching of the box super retailer category killer, in fact I don’t think you even hear the word category killer anymore, except for me just now. So, retail is changing. A lot of restaurants are coming in. If you were the restaurant broker for downtown, Brickell or Edgewater I certainly hope you bought your yacht by now. Boy did you do well and you should continue to do well.
Other retail that’s going to continue to do well is the ground floor retail of these high rise multi-family projects as long as it’s configured for retail. You don’t want to build a bowling alley just because the apartment building design demands it. Wanda how much more time? Alright she gave me three fingers. I know what that means. Hotel is probably the biggest market right now is hotels. We’re developing a number of them in South Florida. We are looking to developing a number of them across the country. We do select service means the hotel doesn’t really have a restaurant in it or anything else like that. We are also doing more full service. We’ve got some great opportunities we’re looking at all across the country and we’ve even got a couple we’ve done right here in South Florida. Industrial, Paul brushed on it. I like industrial because it’s only delivered in small increments. It really doesn’t ever get overbuilt. It’s an institutional thing. It’s almost sort of like a bound. So, industrial is it’s own type of animal. Remember you can get more detail on this if you go to the CCIM conference that’s coming up in a couple of weeks. You can go to www.ccim.com for more information, www.ccimoutlookconference.com to register.
First of all, I want to thank the folks at UHealth that fixed me over the holiday. I spent the entire holiday in bed but now at least I looked relaxed. Don’t I Wanda? I do. I want to thank Eric Ross, our healthcare sponsor. He’s been on giving tips on what they should do. You’ve got to check him out. South Florida Business and Wealth Magazine, the CCIM, UHealth. I want to thank Warren Henry Automotive, the NFL Alumni Association, the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Marlins, Social Media 305. My God I’m good. I’m so proud of all these sponsors and the great show I do for them. I’m blushing. The Aztec Group, the Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. Thank you of course to you our listeners. Lauren’s Kids. Without you our listeners our show wouldn’t be possible. Please go to our Facebook page and like the show and tell your friends. Join our community, give us feedback and comments. Tell us who you want to hear from next week we’ll have Richard Berkowitz. He’s going to come on and talk more about the Dolphin’s Cycle Cancer Challenge, we’ll talk about that. If you want to give me some suggestions or just give me the business. You can tweet me @friedonbusiness. I’m on Facebook. I’m on Linkedin. We are going to start gearing up the YouTube stuff again with Alex.
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This is Jim Fried for Fried on Business. Look for us next week on 880 next Thursday at 5:00. We’re going to have Richard Berkowitz and some other great content. Remember this is not a rehearsal it’s your life. The person that wants to go out and do something finds a way, finds an excuse. It’s red hot out there so go out there and make it happen. Wanda close the show.